SPECIMEN
A public laboratory
for adaptive intelligence
Simulation

MOTH-001

GEN 001WAITING
LIVE DATAT+ 02:19:43
EnvironmentBTC / USD · 60m barsKraken public OHLC (REST, no key)Bars 722 / 72214 Aug 2026 → 13/09 14:00 UTCUpstream fetch pendingRun RPL-XBTUSD-60m-MTZUQF67
Paper portfolio · ◦ WAIT
Equity10,074.19
Return+0.74%
Cash10,074
Positionflat
Realised74.19
Unrealised—
Fees paid111.85
Fills25
Max drawdown-3.52%
60m
Decision journal
13/09 13:00WAITMomentum -0.62% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
13/09 01:00WAITMomentum -0.06% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
12/09 13:00WAITMomentum 0.12% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
12/09 01:00WAITMomentum -2.43% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
12/09 00:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.94%, below the -0.40% exit line.
11/09 15:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.10% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.53%.
11/09 13:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 2.89% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 1.35%.
11/09 12:00ENTERMomentum 1.48% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 77256 above SMA24 77122.
11/09 05:00WAITMomentum -0.08% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
10/09 17:00WAITMomentum -1.54% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
10/09 05:00WAITMomentum -0.32% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
09/09 17:00WAITMomentum -0.23% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
09/09 16:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.47%, below the -0.40% exit line.
09/09 14:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.29% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.06%.
09/09 11:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.10% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.40%.
09/09 09:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.57% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.08%.
09/09 06:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.93% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.20%.
09/09 05:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.56% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.09%.
09/09 04:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.54% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.20%.
09/09 02:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 0.23% still above the -0.40% exit line, position down 0.36%.
09/09 01:00ENTERMomentum 1.21% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 78558 above SMA24 78554.
08/09 16:00WAITMomentum 0.09% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
08/09 04:00WAITMomentum -0.45% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
07/09 16:00WAITMomentum -0.88% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
07/09 04:00WAITMomentum 0.04% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
06/09 16:00WAITMomentum -0.23% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
06/09 04:00WAITMomentum -0.22% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
05/09 16:00WAITMomentum 0.65% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
05/09 04:00WAITMomentum -0.28% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
04/09 16:00WAITMomentum -1.62% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
04/09 04:00WAITMomentum 0.12% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
04/09 03:00EXITMomentum faded to -0.62%, below the -0.40% exit line.
04/09 01:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 2.71% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 2.85%.
03/09 13:00OBSERVEHolding. Momentum 1.95% still above the -0.40% exit line, position up 0.14%.
03/09 12:00ENTERMomentum 2.05% cleared 1.20% with SMA8 77851 above SMA24 77493.
03/09 09:00WAITMomentum 0.42% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
02/09 21:00WAITMomentum 0.70% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.
Current decisionClosed bar → next open

Three creatures. One market. Who adapts?

WAIT13/09 13:00 UTC · bar 720

Momentum -0.62% over 12 bars is below the 1.20% entry threshold.

Momentum-0.62%
Momentum Period12
Entry Threshold1.20%
Sma Fast76,837
Our specimensThree minds. One market.
Performance (simulation)
-4.5%4.8%14.2%23.5%32.9%17 Aug 202613 Sept 2026
MOTH+0.74%MOSS-0.29%ECHO+0.55%Buy & hold+22.23%
Return since the start of the range · fees and slippage included
Evolution (lineage)MOTH
GEN 001Active
GEN 002Candidate
GEN 003Candidate
GEN 004Candidate
GEN 005Candidate
GEN 002 · Confirmation onlyNot separable from chance
Confirm Bars1 → 2

Recorded and waiting for its held-out test, which runs once this dataset has been replayed in full.

GEN 003 · Extension limit onlyNot separable from chance
Max Extensionno limit → 1.50%

Recorded and waiting for its held-out test, which runs once this dataset has been replayed in full.

GEN 004 · Leave while it is still risingNot separable from chance
Exit Threshold-0.40% → 0.20%
01 Sept 2026 → 13 Sept 2026GEN 001GEN 004
Return+0.45%-0.66%
Max drawdown-1.53%-2.53%
Fills68

GEN 004 finished 1.11 points behind GEN 001 on this window. It took 2 more fills. One window is not evidence that the change works; GEN 004 stays a candidate and nothing has been promoted.

Across 324 windows on 108 datasets: ahead on 61 of 105 datasets, which chance alone produces 12% of the time. Not separable from chance.

GEN 005 · A trend filter that is not the signalNot separable from chance
Trend Slow24.00 → 60.00
01 Sept 2026 → 13 Sept 2026GEN 001GEN 005
Return+0.45%+1.27%
Max drawdown-1.53%-0.63%
Fills62

GEN 005 finished 0.83 points ahead of GEN 001 on this window. It took 4 fewer fills. One window is not evidence that the change works; GEN 005 stays a candidate and nothing has been promoted.

Across 81 windows on 27 datasets: ahead on 16 of 26 datasets, which chance alone produces 33% of the time. Not separable from chance.

Benchmark buy & hold +22.23%Seed SPECIMEN-001Fee 0.10% · slippage 0.05% · max 50% of equity per positionSyncing